National security experts of the United States think it is not clear whether the new cost sharing agreement with South Korea will survive if former President Donald Trump is in the White House.

The five-year Special Arrangements Agreement, or SMA, was drafted last week and will come into effect from 2026. Under the agreement, South Korea will increase its contribution to the cost of the US troop presence in the country by 8.3 percent to $1.47 billion in the first year.

The two allies reached the accord earlier than expected, seen as an important step for Seoul and Washington to reach a deal ahead of the US presidential election in November. In a statement released on October 4, the US State Department called the agreement a significant achievement for both sides.

But Trump, while in office and running for the next election, has consistently demanded that South Korea contribute significantly more to their spending to support the US military in Korea.

As recently as April, Trump told Time magazine, "I want South Korea to treat us right." He also said that South Korea is paying virtually nothing for US troops stationed there.

John Bolton, a former White House national security adviser during the Trump administration, told Watch of America's Korea division on Friday that it is likely Trump will ask for a renegotiation of the deal.

Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, points out that the agreement is an executive agreement. As a result, it is easy for Trump to scrap the deal. Because it does not require congressional approval.

Robert Rapson served as Deputy Ambassador and Assistant Chief of Mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021. He told Watch of America's Korea section last week that he was concerned that the deal would not be considered satisfactory by the Trump administration if the former president wins a second term in November.

"Given his demands and expectations of U.S. allies for security burden sharing, my strong fear is that he will seek to renegotiate today's deal at a much higher cost," Rapson said. Rapson was directly involved in both the 2013–14 and 2019–21 phases of the SMA.

Other former government officials, like Klingner, believe it's too early to say whether Trump will try to revise the cost-sharing agreement between the US and South Korea.

Richard Armitage served as Deputy Secretary of State during the George W. Bush administration. He told VOA Korea by phone on Wednesday that he may try, but there is no need to fear it so soon.

Watch America's Korea division reached out to Trump's campaign team this week to find out Trump's position on the newly reached agreement. But, no reply was received from them till the time of publishing this article.