The relationship between Bangladesh and India had a major breakdown after Sheikh Hasina was ousted from power on August 5 and took refuge in India.

After the coup, the interim government led by Professor Yunus has passed almost two and a half months, but there is no sign of thawing of the ice between India and Bangladesh.

After the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, visa application centers were declared closed indefinitely in an unstable situation.

After a long period of closure of Indian visa centers in Bangladesh, operations have resumed on a limited basis, but India has indicated that it will not issue visas other than medical visas and certain urgent needs.

A limited number of visa application centers opened in mid-August. Then on August 16, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India said that the Indian High Commission in Dhaka will issue emergency and medical visas only to a limited extent until the situation normalizes.

How strong a country's diplomatic relations are with another country is revealed through the visa policy. Therefore, the question naturally arises, does India want to create diplomatic pressure on the new government of Bangladesh by restricting the issuance of visas?

Diplomatic signal

Former Bangladesh Ambassador M Humayun Kabir feels that India is using the visa issue as part of applying diplomatic pressure on the current government.

He says it's a message from India that they don't consider the relationship normal. It is a diplomatic signal.

But India has never admitted that visa issuance has been restricted as part of diplomatic pressure. India has always said that security is involved in this matter.

External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said at a regular press conference on Thursday that India will start working fully when there is a favorable environment for normal operations in Bangladesh and the law and order situation is good.

This has been said earlier from India's side. Besides, he once again expressed concern about the security of Hindus in Bangladesh.

He also said, "We will remind the Interim Government of Bangladesh of their commitment to the safety of the minorities, so that they can perform their religious activities safely, as we saw the attacks on various places of worship during the recently concluded Durga Puja.

Sriradha Dutta, Professor of International Relations at Jindal Global University in India, has been practicing and researching Bangladesh for many years.

Sriradha Dutt said that there is no doubt that there is concern from India's side about the security issue. This matter was given importance during the regime of Sheikh Hasina. We have a natural fear of non-Awami, non-Hasina situation. Remember how bad the bilateral relations were from 2001 to 2006.

He said that there is concern in India about the law and order situation that has developed after August 5.

Security is an excuse

Although the issue of security has been brought up from the Indian side, no such concern has been openly seen on the part of other foreign embassies in Dhaka.

Before and after August 5, many embassies of different countries left Dhaka, but within a month they returned again and fully started the visa issue process.

Security is tight in front of various foreign embassies in Dhaka and army personnel are engaged in security at some places. According to the Vienna Protocol, host countries are obliged to ensure the security of embassies and diplomats of foreign countries. Embassies of other countries are not concerned about security, but why is India so uncomfortable?

Sriradha Dutta says that many people crossed the border from Bangladesh and entered India from August 5 to August 15. Naturally, it is not a concern of ours? The domestic situation is not that stable. Bangladeshis themselves are in fear.

Mentioning that they are citing the issue of security as an excuse, he said that it should not be difficult for the government of Bangladesh to ensure the security of Indian institutions and embassies.

Many people protested at the Indian visa center in Dhaka after the visa application center opened on a limited scale in mid-August last year. Security has been beefed up following the protests. The government has deployed an army unit there.

Observers of India feel that Sheikh Hasina's ouster and escape on August 5 came as a 'set back' or 'blow' to India.

Not only the Government of India, even various professionals are unable to agree on this issue. It takes some time to overcome this condition. Sheikh Hasina's fate was not in India's reckoning.

Former ambassador Humayun Kabir says that India is suffering from a kind of uncertainty regarding the benefits that India got during the previous Awami League government.

According to him, India is taking time to understand or adapt to the changed situation in Bangladesh. Some of the advisors of the Interim Government of Bangladesh initially made some comments that could appear to be anti-Indian.

Humayun Kabir says that Bangladesh is trying to normalize relations. But to what extent India is taking that effort into account is a big question.

The chief adviser of Bangladesh wanted to meet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New York. But India showed no interest in it. Humayun Kabir feels that there is a kind of reluctance or reluctance in India to communicate at the highest level of the two countries.

He says, I think they don't find much credibility in what our chief adviser and foreign adviser are saying, nor do they want to.

Humayun Kabir said, we are taking initiatives from our side. I will not say that they are not taking initiative on their part. Their High Commissioner is also meeting and communicating with various people.

Various analyzes are still going on in India regarding the direction of the changed political situation of Bangladesh. There is a perception in the Indian government and various circles that the influence of Islamists in Bangladesh has increased after the ouster of Sheikh Hasina.

In this regard Sriradha Dutta said, suddenly we see how many small Islamic groups have come out on the streets. We do not understand where they are waking up from. There is certainly a place for fear. Then there's Minority Attack. These things do not naturally give us confidence.

Sriradha Dutt questioned whether the current interim government has assured India of resolving the issues that India has concerns about in Bangladesh.

Sriradha Dutta thinks that there is no urge to improve relations from the two countries. I believe the relationship between the two countries is such that they should work together for the betterment of their own people.

Will the visa crisis be solved?

In a press conference in Dhaka on October 1, Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain said that he had a discussion with India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar in New York about the current situation. We both agreed that it is in our mutual interest to establish good relations with each other. Bangladesh has interest in it, India also has interest here.

It is not yet certain when the meeting can be held at the highest level between the two countries. Bangladesh's foreign affairs adviser hopes that a meeting with Bangladesh's chief adviser Muhammad Yunus and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be possible at the BIMSTEC conference next November. But this is only hope, not a sure thing yet.

Towhid Hossain and S Jaishankar discussed the issue of Indian visas to Bangladeshis in New York.

Jaishankar told Bangladesh Foreign Affairs Adviser Touhid Hossain that many of the officials involved in the visa issue at the Indian Embassy in Dhaka had left for India.

Quoting India's foreign minister, Bangladesh's foreign affairs adviser said they expect the visa issuance process to begin fully within a few days. It may not take much time.

However, BBC's correspondent in Delhi, Shubhojyeti Ghosh, said that speaking to various officials of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is no indication that the process of issuing Indian visas from Bangladesh will start soon.

Prannoy Kumar Verma, India's high commissioner assigned to Bangladesh, said in January 2023 that about 1.6 million people from Bangladesh are going to India with visas every year. This number sometimes increases.

He then said that the world's largest Indian visa center is located in Dhaka and India has 15 visa centers all over Bangladesh.

The Indian High Commissioner says that more than 5,000 visas are being issued every day. This number is increasing. I am doing everything for the benefit of common people. The relationship between the two countries is extraordinary and unique.

Source: BBC Bangla