The possibility of granting political asylum to Sheikh Hasina in India is under discussion, especially as it has been done in the past to the Dalai Lama of Tibet and Mohammad Najibullah of Afghanistan. If Sheikh Hasina, who is a former Prime Minister of Bangladesh and a political influencer, needs to stay for a long time in India, the issue of 'asylum' can be considered for her.

He has good relations with the current ruling BJP and the opposition Congress in Indian politics, and opposition to the proposal is unlikely between the two parties. The situation was different when Sheikh Hasina was in India in the past, but in the current context her political importance is being taken into account.

After almost two and a half months, Sheikh Hasina landed in Delhi in a military plane after being ousted from Bangladesh. Since then, he has not been seen in public for a single moment, no photos of him have been 'leaked' on social media, audios of various alleged phone conversations have been leaked, but there is no proof that they are his voice.

Since coming to India, he has practically vanished into thin air!

Indian government spokespersons, ministers or policy makers have not uttered a single word about her (or her accompanying younger sister Sheikh Rehana) since she landed in Delhi. Not in any press conference, not in any interview.

However, the Indian government on Thursday afternoon officially and indirectly said only that he is still in India. As BBC Bangla reported last week that the news of Sheikh Hasina going to the Emirates or any Middle Eastern country is completely baseless, so at least now the Indian government is also officially 'confirming' it.

While it is true that the Indian government has succeeded in maintaining complete secrecy over Sheikh Hasina's stay in the country, Delhi is still completely in the dark about how long she will be kept in India.

'It's going to be a long haul', says a top government official in Delhi's South Block - who believes the government is getting ready for the reality that Sheikh Hasina will have to stay in India for a long time.

So, as in the past, as the Tibetan cleric Dalai Lama or Afghan President Mohammad Najibullah's wife and children were given 'political asylum' or political asylum by India, are similar steps being considered in the case of Sheikh Hasina?

In order to find answers to these questions, the BBC in Delhi spoke to officials from different levels and ministries of the Bengali government.

Firstly, in the eyes of India, Sheikh Hasina is a 'guest, but under compulsion!' That is, he is an honored guest of the state - who has to come to India under special circumstances. India knows very well that he came to India because his safety or security was threatened in his own country. Now he can be kept in the country in this 'guest' status day after day, month after month - India has no problem with that. As an old friend and guest of the country, he will receive all due respect.

Secondly, if the situation is different later, something else can be thought of – but right now India has no plans to grant political asylum to Sheikh Hasina. Most importantly, he himself never applied for asylum. But if such a proposal does come later, the Indian government knows that all parties in the country will agree on it and building a political consensus on granting asylum to Sheikh Hasina will not be a problem. But Delhi does not want to take any such step forward now.

As a result, in a word, for the time being India wants to offer 'hospitality' to Sheikh Hasina - not 'shelter'.

Hasina in India: What do I know, what do I not know?

"You are aware of the former Prime Minister of Bangladesh's stay in India...he had to come here at very short notice mainly for security reasons," External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said at the regular weekly briefing in Delhi on Thursday. He is still that way.”

Through this speech, he has at least informed that Sheikh Hasina is still staying in India. But even after this, the answers to many questions about Sheikh Hasina still remain unknown.

Now the question is, how much is known for sure about Sheikh Hasina's movements in the last two and a half months, and what can be dismissed as mere speculation or rumour? BBC Bengal's own investigation says –

1) From the evening of August 5 till the time of publication of this report, Sheikh Hasina was in India, she is in India. There was no question of crossing into a Middle Eastern country, or the Emirate city of Ajman – he didn't even board a plane to go to a third country. The news that he was sent back to India after waiting for hours in the plane is also completely false.

2) It is also confirmed that he landed at the Hindon Airport in Ghaziabad near Delhi on the evening of August 5, but was evacuated from there within the next two to three days. Hindon is basically an Indian Air Force base, there are no facilities for a VVIP guest to stay for a long time. So Sheikh Hasina was moved from there to another location at the first opportunity.

3) Sheikh Hasina has been given a 'Travel Document' (TD) by the Government of India so that she can visit any third country if necessary - there have been reports in the media recently. The Indian government, however, avoided commenting on the travel document – ​​neither admitting nor denying the issue. As a result, Sheikh Hasina got TD from India, it cannot be said for sure.

4) Sheikh Hasina is still in India, although the government has confirmed that she is in the capital Delhi or not - but it is not certain. There are two speculations about where exactly Sheikh Hasina might be staying – a) Arrangements have been made to keep Sheikh Hasina with her at the residence of her daughter Saima Wazed, who is working in Delhi as a regional director at the World Health Organization, and b) a paramilitary camp in Uttar Pradesh's Meerut or Haryana's Manesar near Delhi. He is staying in the army guesthouse or 'safe house'.

BBC Bengal has spotted that the first of these has no basis – but the second may be true.

Five) Sheikh Hasina was not even seen taking a morning walk in Delhi's famous Lodi Garden in the last two and a half months, nor did she go shopping in any superstore in the capital. These are 100% rumours- no one has been able to show any picture to support these claims, no one has come forward with the claim that they saw him with their own eyes at those places.

Six) Sheikh Hasina has been kept in a very 'safe' location under tight security, she is not able to move around as she pleases - as it is true, it is not appropriate to say that she is under 'house arrest' or house arrest. As evidence, Sheikh Hasina's personal phone access is still intact, she has regular contact with her children who are in America or Delhi. Even many of the party leaders who had his personal telephone number were able to contact him and talk to him.

Seven) But under the special circumstances that Sheikh Hasina has to come to India, then any guest has to go through some 'debriefing session' - and Sheikh Hasina was no exception. India's top security officials have briefed him on what 'do's and don'ts' India expects from him, what he thinks he should or shouldn't say - BBC It is also known for sure.

However, after all these things, the biggest question in the conversation of Bengalis in the premises of the recently concluded Durga Puja in Delhi was, did Sheikh Hasina get to eat the hilsa of Bangladesh during the season full of hilsa?

Like many other questions about him, the answer remains shrouded in mystery!

'Bin Bulaye Mehman'

There is a saying in Hindi language 'Bin Bulaye Mehman' – meaning a guest who arrives at your house uninvited.

A senior official of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of India was saying, "Sheikh Hasina may actually have to come to Delhi on 'Bin Bulay', but there is no doubt that she is our guest!"

As a result, there is no room for India to be deficient in its 'Mehmandari' or hospitality.

A former ambassador of India Ajay Bisaria also thinks that allowing Sheikh Hasina to stay in India can be a 'delicate dilemma' or a very sensitive dilemma for Delhi - but to be honest there is no other way in front of India except to keep her in this country with due status!

Almost all the analysts of this country's diplomatic circles or international relations agree that India must stand by Sheikh Hasina at this moment of crisis - because if not, no leader of South Asia or any country in the neighborhood will be able to trust India's friendship in the future.

And the most honorable way to honor that old friendship is to keep Sheikh Hasina in India for as long as she needs, with the honor of a state guest.

Smriti Patnaik, a senior fellow at the Delhi-based think tank IDSA, recalls that even when Sheikh Hasina and her family took refuge in India in 1975 after the assassination of Sheikh Mujib, she was not technically given political asylum – rather, the state kept her as a guest, keeping her identity a secret.

That decision was sealed by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Almost half a century after that incident, there are indications that today's Narendra Modi government is taking exactly the same steps.

However, it was possible to keep Sheikh Hasina and her family members in Delhi for almost six years from 1975 to 1981 under a pseudonym and avoiding the attention of the media.

But even though the character of hospitality has changed, it is still hospitality, and Delhi feels that keeping him as a guest is the most acceptable solution for the time being to this diplomatic problem.

Many observers, however, believe that Sheikh Hasina's presence in Delhi could become an element of uneasiness in relations between the new governments of India and Bangladesh.

For example, according to Avinash Paliwal, a professor at the London School of Economics and a writer-researcher of South Asian politics, if Sheikh Hasina stays in India, it may not be a deal-breaker between the two countries, but it will complicate bilateral diplomacy!

"If the person against whom there was a coup in Bangladesh gets shelter in India, it will certainly bring discomfort between the two countries and we can see the signs of that," said Dr. Paliwal

If India gives political asylum to Sheikh Hasina in this critical situation, it will surely lead to more diplomatic turmoil.

Delhi thinks it would be better if Sheikh Hasina now 'stays the way she is' – that is, in the status of a guest of the country, and of course for as long as necessary.

Pros and Cons of Asylum

After all this, India may have to consider giving political asylum to Sheikh Hasina in the coming days.

In the past, India has given political asylum to many foreign leaders like Dalai Lama of Tibet, Mohammed Nasheed of Maldives or Mohammad Najibullah of Afghanistan.

Najibullah himself could not come to India despite being granted asylum, but his wife and children spent many years in Delhi.

When a high-profile foreign leader is granted asylum, it is usually announced in parliament, with cross-party discussions taking place before the decision is made – although it is not mandatory.

As in the case of the Dalai Lama, Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru himself announced the decision in Parliament in 1959, and the granting of asylum to Najibullah's family was announced in Parliament a few years later by External Affairs Minister IK Gujral.

When Sheikh Hasina was in India for the first time (1975-81), it was not 'asylum' on paper - so there was no question of informing the Parliament.

But then she was just the daughter of the late Sheikh Mujib – and now she is a former prime minister, the longest in the history of independent Bangladesh who held power for nearly twenty-one years.

As a result, some observers believe that if such a political figure needs to be kept in India for a very long time, then at some point 'asylum' may have to be considered.

A very big advantage of giving political asylum to Sheikh Hasina is that no political party in India is likely to oppose the proposal.

He has good relations with both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. Narendra Modi or Sonia and Rahul Gandhi of the Gandhi family - he has developed his own 'personal chemistry' with all of them.

Sanjay Bharadwaj, professor of South Asia Studies at Delhi's JNU, said, 'It should be remembered that the decision to give shelter to the Dalai Lama was opposed by the Communists of India, who were very close to China at the time.'

But if the proposal to give shelter to Sheikh Hasina comes, it is quite certain that all parties in India will welcome it. Because he is a tested friend of India, there is a 'broad consensus' in the entire country.

Another major benefit of granting political asylum to Sheikh Hasina is that – once she receives this recognition, any request to 'extradite' her or hand her over to Bangladesh can be turned away on that argument alone.

That is, the decision has been taken out of fear that the person granted political asylum by India may face political reprisals in his own country - so the question of handing him over to them for trial does not arise.

Again, the disadvantage is that if Sheikh Hasina gets political asylum in India, India's relationship with the Bangladesh government will definitely be bitter. Anti-India sentiment may also be fueled among a section of people in Bangladesh.

Since India's investment and 'stake' in Bangladesh is hundreds of crores of rupees - so whether Delhi will increase the risk or not, it is also a matter to be seen!

Arrest warrant and so on

It is against this background that the International Criminal Tribunal (ICT) of Bangladesh has issued an arrest warrant against the 'returnee' Sheikh Hasina on October 17 and the Bangladesh government has also said that they will take swift action to implement this directive.

If this warrant is to be executed within the stipulated month, then it can be assumed that very soon the Bangladesh government will submit a written demand to India to hand over Sheikh Hasina to them.

The Indian government, however, refused to comment on the arrest warrant on the same day (October 17). Spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal only said, 'We have also seen these reports, but we have nothing to say about them.'

But before that, many former diplomats and analysts in Delhi have said that they are sure that according to the extradition agreement between the two countries, if there is a request to send back Sheikh Hasina - India will not accept it at all and will waste years of time with a thousand arguments!

And formally granting political asylum is not the only way to deny extradition requests – there are many other ways.

In other words, it is possible to turn back the request by keeping Sheikh Hasina in India as a state guest.

This is why many observers in Delhi feel that it is not very important in what identity or status Sheikh Hasina is technically kept - but what is important is that India is ready to keep her for a long time.

In the words of Riva Ganguly Das, the former High Commissioner of India in Dhaka, 'It is not a big deal whether he stayed as a guest or got asylum. The important thing is whether he is being kept in India with the respect he deserves or not.

As they say in English, a day is a day! It means whatever name you call a rose, it remains a rose.'

"Similarly, it doesn't matter whether Sheikh Hasina gets asylum in India or stays as a guest - she will remain Sheikh Hasina in India's eyes," Ganguly Das told BBC Bengal.

This is probably the biggest truth about Sheikh Hasina's position in India this time!