Donald Trump made history in the US presidential election. This Republican candidate has broken 132 years of electoral tradition. This 78-year-old politician proved the lie of the American professor who had predicted correctly in 9 of the last 10 elections.
Even though the official results are yet to be announced, the colorful life of the White House is calling Donald Trump by the hand. President Joe Biden invited Trump to the White House before the results were officially announced. However, Trump will have to wait 74 days to become a resident of the White House with First Lady Melania.
The results announced so far show that Donald Trump has received 295 out of 538 Electoral College votes. And his rival, the candidate of the Democratic party, Kamla Harris, got 226. However, international media reports on the numbers differ. Donald Trump won 5 of the 7 swing states that determine the outcome of the US presidential election. Republican candidates are leading in the rest of Nevada and Arizona. Electoral votes in these two are 6 and 11 respectively. If Trump wins these two, his electoral votes will be 312 according to the US principle of 'winner takes all'. Apart from Swing, results are yet to be declared in two other states; Those two are Maine and Nebraska. Electoral votes in them are 4 and 5 respectively.
Observers of international politics have been reeling ever since Donald Trump got a glimpse of victory. The reckoning has begun as to which way the foreign policy will proceed in the tumultuous second term of Trump. Will Trump make major changes in foreign policy management? What changes will he bring to the policies followed by the Biden administration?
According to the rational actor paradigm and realism theory of realist theorist Hans J. Morganthur, Donald Trump is an irrational actor in international politics; Who is an unpredictable character. No one can predict what decisions he will make and what he will say in international politics. It is not difficult to understand the steps taken in his first term. Trump's character is a mix of a disgraced and disgraced statesman. Trump is going to become the first president in the history of the United States to be convicted of a criminal offense by a large majority. When the economy of the United States is in a state of turmoil due to the unrestrained military-economic cooperation of the Democrat Biden administration to the allied powers in the Ukraine war, the Middle East crisis, the Americans have chosen Trump to prioritize their interests and change their fate.
Access to the ruling class never brings welfare to the people of any state. Despite knowing this, the Marquis gave Trump unconditional support. Republicans are victorious in the Senate, House of Representatives, Provincial Assembly and governorships of the large democratic country's parliament. After so many mandates, Trump does not have to face the opposition in the implementation of domestic and foreign policy. He can pass laws if he wants. Where this excess of power takes Trump remains to be seen. Americans threw Trump once four years ago because of aggressive policies. Now he is returning to Masanad after passing many uphill climbs. It is also a matter of thinking how much suffering will be for the people of the world this time of Trump.
Political observers say that Trump will take a tougher policy than the liberal policies of the Biden administration on Ukraine and China. But it is hard to predict what his Middle East policy will be in a second term.
During the election campaign, Donald Trump promised to control the flow of immigration and inflation. He has repeatedly hinted at bringing back his 'America First' policy. He also hinted at reducing isolationism and global collaboration.
Trump promised to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours if he won the election campaign. He also talked about bringing peace to the Middle East and reining in the economic expansion of China, a major geopolitical rival.
US political observers say that Trump's words may be far from what he can actually do. Experts also expressed concern over whether Trump would be able to stick to his word.
Israel's 'best friend'
Benjamin Netanyahu, the 'butcher of the Middle East', is probably the happiest that Donald Trump has won. Congratulating Trump after his victory, an elated Netanyahu called Trump a friend. During his previous term as president, Trump moved his country's embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Through this, Trump recognized much of Israel's occupation of Jerusalem. That left a mark on the minds of the Palestinians. The Republican leader also recognized the Golan Heights occupied by Israel in Syria. The Trump administration destroyed the Abraham Accords, Israel's economic and diplomatic foundation with Arab countries.
Nancy O'Kyle, CEO of the Center for International Policy think tank on Trump's Middle East policy, said that Donald Trump believes in his heart - the way to solve the Middle East crisis is to throw donations there. Nancy believes that, moreover, Trump can calm the heated situation in the Middle East if he wants to. He said the US policy of 'weapons for peace' in the Middle East has proved a failure. It is this policy of Israel in Gaza and Lebanon that has brought about the destructive situation. So if Donald Trump wants to reduce the supply of arms to Israel, he can calm the Middle East fire.
Enmity with Iran
Donald Trump considers Iran an enemy. Trump has been a staunch believer in a tough policy on Iran during and after his presidency. The United States, United Kingdom, France, and Germany agreed to lift international sanctions on Tehran under the condition of stopping Iran's nuclear program. President Trump unilaterally withdrew from that agreement. The Trump administration has since imposed several tough sanctions on Iran. The recognition of the killing of Iran's top general Qasem Soleimani also came during the Trump era. During the election campaign in October this year, Trump recalled that policy and said, "When I was president, Iran was in a vacuum." They were bound from all sides, they had no money. This suggests Trump will not budge from his tough stance on Iran policy.
The CEO of the Center for International Policy Think Tank, Nancy Okile, expressed optimism that the world could see nuclear proliferation in Trump's next term. The escalation of war in Lebanon and Iran that the US is trying to stop is possible if Trump wants it. It is also possible to reduce the conflict there.
Ukraine war
Donald Trump believes that Ukraine can end the war within 24 hours. 'If I return to the presidency, it will take me one day to stop this war.' Without elaborating on how that would be possible, Trump said during the campaign that he wanted to talk to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He knows the weaknesses and strengths of both of them. Therefore, Trump is confident that he has the ability to stop this war within 24 hours.
Donald Trump, who maintains good relations with Putin, has also criticized Zelensky's calls for more aid to Ukraine. In June, Trump said he would make ending the war in Ukraine a priority upon taking office.
Trump's face value is important, according to Leslie Vinamuri, a think tank at Chetham House in London. He can quickly cut a deal that cuts off any cooperation with Ukraine. For example, he could make a deal with Putin by excluding Zelensky. In light of which Zelensky will lose control of some territories of Ukraine to Putin's foresight. This is how the war in Ukraine can end. Vinamurry said Russia's role in the European Union would increase based on the depth of its relationship with Putin, and that would be a concern for many.
For years, there has been a geopolitical competition between the world's two largest superpowers, the United States and China. Conflict between the two countries is visible over trade, Taiwan issue, control of the Asia Pacific region. Think tank International Crisis Group (ICG) believes that Trump's foreign policy will revolve around China, focusing on trade. These issues of human rights and democracy will not be the basis of US economic relations with the country. In 2018, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese imports. Meanwhile, Washington's trade war with Beijing was on the verge of breaking out.
Despite this bitter experience, Trump expressed his willingness to work with China's tyrannical leader Xi Jinping. In an interview given to Fox News last August, Trump said, "I have a good relationship with Xi." But China still remembers that due to its tariff policy, Beijing had to pay large sums of duty at that time.
Trump proudly said, no one can do business from China. But I did bring out billions and billions of dollars. Trump said, to strengthen the country's economy, he will increase tariffs on foreign products. He will impose 10 percent duty on all types of imported goods. However, only Chinese products will be imposed a duty of up to 60 percent. It is expected that China's business in the United States is coming to a halt.
Jusho Karljic, senior fellow for South and Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, assesses Trump's China policy—he is more assertive and more aggressive. So it is difficult to say now what his relationship with Xi Jinping will be in the coming days.
Unconditional mandate
History professor Allen Lickman correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 US presidential elections. He bet on the 2024 election for Democrat Kamala Harris. Why am I sure Harris is going to win, Professor Lickman told CNN, citing 13 methods of prediction Because surveys only talk about probability and my method ignores surveys. His method analyzes the ongoing political context through 13 true-false statements with an eye on the ruling president's party.
If six or more of these statements are false, the opposing candidate—in this case Trump—is predicted to win. Lickman's method before the vote now shows eight of the 13 statements, or keys, favoring Harris and three favoring his Republican challenger. Only in the 2000 presidential election did Professor Lickman's method fail to predict correctly. This time it happened again. Trump disproved this professor's predictions.
Not only that, in another place, Donald Trump has written history in his own way. Win the first election, lose the next, then win again in the third; The last such 'comeback' in the US presidential election was by Grover Cleveland, 132 years ago. He was the president from 1885 to 1889 and from 1893 to 1897. Breaking that 132-year record, Trump brought history back.
Donald Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 but lost the popular vote. This time he has won both electorally and popularly. According to BBC news, out of 24 crore 4 million voters, Trump has received 7 crore 26 lakh 79 thousand 795 votes so far. And rival Harris got almost half a million votes less than him. His vote count is 6 crore 79 lakh 78 thousand 698 votes. If the results of the remaining four states are announced, Trump's vote will increase. In this case, he may even get a chance to break Biden's record. In the last election in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden received more than 80.12 million popular votes, the highest vote received by any candidate in the US presidential election. In contrast, Republican Donald Trump received more than 742 million votes.
Before the election, various polls predicted a tough fight between the two candidates, but this time there was no fight like the previous two elections. Trump was in the lead from the start after the vote counting began. The Senate, the House of Representatives, the House of Representatives, Trump's party is victorious everywhere.
Donald Trump's party won a majority in the Senate with 52 seats; Democrats won 44 seats. Trump won 206 seats in the lower house of representatives, while Harris won 191 seats. Republicans are leading the governorship as well. Trump's team got 27 and Harris's team got 23.
Such a large mandate will undoubtedly allow Trump to use much more power in running the country. He will not have to wait in the implementation of domestic and foreign policies.
Author: Ataur Rahman
Journalist and writer.
