Immigration was a big issue in this year's US presidential election. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have spoken out about controlling immigration through the Mexican border. Trump has repeatedly warned that undocumented immigrants will be deported. Kamala Harris supported the border security bill, which calls for hundreds of billions of dollars in border wall construction. Donald Trump, who is known to be anti-immigration, has become the president in this election. The thing to see now is what happens to the immigrants in the country in the coming days, and what happens to the United States if there are no immigrants.

Population of the United States

Without immigrants, America's population would be much smaller. According to 2023 statistics, the number of foreign-born people in the United States is much higher. That data shows that 47.8 million foreign-born people live in the United States, which is 14.3 percent of the total US population.

First on this list are people from Mexico. One crore six million people live in the United States. On the other hand, there are 2.8 million people of Indian origin and 2.5 million people from China.

Incidentally, even though the number of immigrant workers is at a record high, the declining birth rate in the United States has not resulted in population growth.

The US population grew at its slowest rate since the 1930s between 2010 and 2020.

Birth rates fell in the 1930s as a result of the 'Great Depression'.

This means that the United States, like many other countries, is grappling with an aging population. Along with this, health related costs are increasing. On the other hand, the working age population is decreasing.

The Congressional Budget Office says deaths will outnumber births by 2040. Then immigration will increase the population.

For this reason, many economists and pro-immigration groups have demanded that immigration be allowed with the economy in mind, especially in rural areas.

Its impact on the financial system

Tariq Hasan, associate professor of economics at Boston University, said the absence of immigrants would have a major impact on the US economy.

He explained, 'If immigrants were excluded entirely, then GDP per capita would drop by five to 10 percent. In other words, the effect of the decrease of some people (absence of immigrants) will be reflected in the GDP.

Based on data from his research, Tariq Hasan says, 'Migration fuels innovation, increases productivity and is not limited to any particular sector.'

Incidentally, immigrants are relatively young and likely to work.

About 19 percent of the 30 million people working in the US civil sector are immigrants.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rate of participation of immigrants in the US labor force is higher than that of the American-born.

According to estimates by the Congressional Budget Office, between 2022 and 2034, about 91 percent of immigrants age 16 and older coming to the United States will be under the age of 55, which is 62 percent of the total elderly population in the United States.

Sectors that play a role in the financial system—such as agriculture—are entirely dependent on migrant workers.

According to the Labor Ministry's National Agricultural Workers Survey, 70 percent of workers are immigrants. Although many of these workers still do not have the relevant documents.

Nan Bue is the research director of the American Immigrant Council (AIC). He is also associated with an organization that works on the rights of immigrants. According to him, 'displacing the migrants means that farm owners will not get the workers they need to do farming, pick fruits and vegetables and meet the growing market demand during the festive season.'

On the other hand, one argument of those who criticize immigration is that large numbers of foreign workers are willing to work for low wages, and as a result, American citizens are also forced to work for low wages and suffer losses.

The University of California in 2014 reviewed 27 studies on the impact of immigration on the economy.

This observation suggests that the average effect of immigration on the wages of US-born citizens is almost zero.

A recent study has been conducted by Eastern Illinois University. "Increasing the number of immigrants may have a positive effect on wage growth, although the effect is statistically insignificant," the study says.

Impact on Taxation

The question is, what will be the impact on tax revenue?

According to AIC's analysis, immigrant households accounted for one-sixth of total taxes ($58 billion) in 2022.

On behalf of AIC, Nan Byu said that it is not only legal immigrants who pay taxes.

According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center think tank, undocumented immigrants make up about 23 percent of the total immigrant population. Of the nearly 1.1 million immigrants, 40 million are from Mexico.

A study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that undocumented immigrants paid nearly $100 billion in federal, state and local taxes in 2022.

Daniel Costa serves as Director of the Immigration Law and Policy Research Department at the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank. According to him, the economic impact of immigration can be positive at the national level. But in some states it can be negative, especially in the short run.

In a recent study, he and his team found that low-wage but skilled migrants 'tend to have a negative short-term fiscal impact'.

They argue that more money should be redistributed from the federal to the state level to address the challenges of populous immigration areas.

Professor Giovanni Peri, an immigration expert and economist at the University of California, says, 'If the construction work is not organized, the pressure on services and housing will also increase. It's true that it's easy to exclude immigrants.'

Immigrant business success

A large proportion of immigrants or their children have gained prominence in business.

About 45 percent of firms on the annual list of the 500 largest U.S. companies by revenue were founded by immigrants or their children.

At the same time, 55 percent of US start-ups valued at $1 billion or more were founded by immigrants.

Immigrants, many of whom initially came to the United States as international students, have also played an important role in global technological progress.

According to the Association of International Educators, more than 1 million international students contributed $4 trillion to the U.S. economy in the 2022-2023 academic year.

public opinion

A recent Gallup poll showed that despite the role of immigrants in the US economy, 55 percent of Americans want immigration to be reduced.

There is also political consensus on strictly controlling immigration, particularly to prevent illegal entry at the border with Mexico.

Professor Perry said some politicians and the media compared immigration to 'border chaos'.

Attention is drawn to different 'stories' of illegal immigration rather than important issues such as the impact of immigration.

'As a result, instead of discussing the impact of immigrants on the economy and the role they play in population decline, people often see immigration from the southern border as a flood. People think immigration is excessive and that it's actually harmful.'

Tariq Hasan of Boston University said, 'Immigration has increased significantly in the last two decades.'

'While immigration has positive effects in economic, social and cultural areas, it can have aspects that make others uncomfortable.'